ArcelorMittal commenced the second tranche of its 2025-2030 share buyback program this week, less than ninety days after launching the first phase. The Luxembourg-domiciled steel producer did not disclose first-tranche completion size, but the multi-year authorization carries a $2.5 billion ceiling through 2030. The company last filed a comparable program in 2021, retiring $2.1 billion of equity over eighteen months before pausing in early 2023.
The timing lands between quarterly reporting windows. ArcelorMittal posted fourth-quarter EBITDA of $1.47 billion in February, down 31% year-over-year but 7% above consensus on stronger Brazilian spreads and European capacity rationalization. Free cash flow turned positive at $412 million after three sequential quarters of outflow, driven by working capital normalization and deferred capex on the India expansion. Net debt stood at $6.2 billion, holding the leverage ratio at 1.1x EBITDA despite softer earnings. Management guided to flat 2025 steel shipments at 58 million tonnes but flagged margin upside if Chinese export discipline persists through midyear.
The sequential acceleration in buyback cadence signals confidence in the company's Brazil and NAFTA margins, which now represent 64% of group EBITDA versus 52% two years ago. European operations remain structurally challenged—utilization rates in Poland and Belgium hover near 68%—but management has shuttered 4.2 million tonnes of capacity since 2022, tightening regional spreads by an estimated $18 per tonne on HRC benchmark pricing. The second tranche also frontloads capital return ahead of the India Hazira expansion, which enters commissioning in Q3 2025 with 5 million tonnes of pellet-feed capacity. That project carries a $1.8 billion price tag, but ArcelorMittal has pre-sold 78% of output under five-year offtake agreements with domestic automakers, locking in returns above the company's 12% ROIC threshold.
Allocators should track April HRC settlements in Rotterdam and Shanghai. European contract prices reset monthly, and any sustained print above €620 per tonne would lift ArcelorMittal's European segment into positive EBITDA for the first time since Q2 2023. In Brazil, watch CSN's pricing announcements—ArcelorMittal typically follows within seventy-two hours, and recent carmaker restocking has pushed domestic demand 9% above seasonal norms. The India commissioning timeline matters for 2026 earnings visibility; any delay past October would defer $240 million in annualized EBITDA into 2027. Management has scheduled a capital markets day for June 12 in New York, where updated buyback pacing and the 2026-2027 capex envelope will likely be disclosed.
The second tranche begins with gross leverage still below the company's 1.5x policy ceiling and $3.1 billion in undrawn credit facilities. That leaves room for opportunistic M&A if distressed European assets emerge, though management has shown no appetite for capacity additions outside India since the Essar acquisition closed in 2022.