Goldman Sachs published its latest family office research note tracking global allocation intentions across 427 single-family offices managing a combined $1.2 trillion. The headline finding: despite holding allocation ratios roughly flat over the past 24 months, family office principals now signal intent to increase exposure to risk assets by an average of 3.8 percentage points over the next 18 months. Applied to the surveyed asset base, that represents approximately $180 billion in rotation pressure.
The note arrives as three separate family office research publications hit the market within 48 hours—Yanne Capital's H2 2026 Allocation Watch, Fairbridge Asset Management's presentation deck for the Family Office Club $100M Summit, and a succession-focused study from an unnamed European advisory group. The simultaneous release pattern suggests coordination among family office service providers ahead of Q2 allocation committee meetings, which typically run April through early June.
Goldman's data shows family offices have maintained public equity exposure at 28-31% of portfolio value since Q1 2023, below the 35-40% range typical of endowments and pension funds. The intended rotation flows primarily into private credit and growth-stage equity—not public markets. Private credit allocations are expected to rise from 14% to 18% of portfolio value, while venture and growth equity moves from 11% to 13%. Direct real estate holds steady at 19%, suggesting family offices view the current commercial real estate dislocation as distribution risk rather than entry opportunity.
The shift matters because family offices operate without the quarterly reporting constraints of institutional allocators. When they move, they move size and they move duration. A 3.8-point allocation shift across $1.2 trillion does not clear in 90 days. It clears over 18-24 months through private placements, co-investment vehicles, and direct deal flow that never touches public order books. The secondary effect: family offices bidding for the same private credit and growth equity deals will compress returns in those segments by late 2025, exactly as they did in venture during 2020-2021.
Operators and allocators should watch three follow-on events. First, private credit funds will oversubscribe their next raises by June 2025, then push management fees up by 25-40 basis points by Q4. Second, growth-stage venture funds will see family office LP interest spike, but those same family offices will demand co-investment rights that dilute returns for pure LPs. Third, public equity managers pitching family offices will face allocation pressure unless they can articulate why public markets outperform private on a tax-adjusted, liquidity-adjusted basis—a harder argument when the S&P trades at 22x forward earnings and private credit yields 9-11% on senior-secured paper.
Goldman's note includes one detail worth isolating: 63% of surveyed family offices now have a family member under age 40 in a formal investment decision role, up from 48% two years prior. Younger decision-makers consistently favor venture, growth equity, and crypto over fixed income and public equity. The allocation shift is not solely a response to market conditions. It is a generational handoff dressed as alpha strategy.