Meta Platforms is discussing a lease of artificial intelligence computing infrastructure to Anthropic in a transaction that could reach $10 billion over two years, according to people familiar with the negotiations. The arrangement would convert Meta's data center overcapacity into a recurring revenue stream and place the company in direct competition with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform for the first time in frontier AI workloads.
The discussions remain preliminary. Meta built approximately $65 billion in AI-specific data center capacity between 2022 and 2024, much of it to support internal projects including Llama model training and content moderation at scale. Anthropic, which raised $7.3 billion in Series C funding led by Google in September, currently relies on AWS and Google Cloud for most of its compute. The startup's Claude 3.5 Sonnet model requires roughly 350,000 hours of H100-equivalent GPU time per training run. A two-year lease at $10 billion implies Anthropic would be securing access to between 16,000 and 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs at prevailing wholesale rates, depending on the final contract structure.
This matters because it signals Meta's willingness to monetize stranded infrastructure assets rather than write them down. The company's capital expenditure guidance for 2025 sits at $60 billion to $65 billion, with roughly 40 percent allocated to AI compute buildout. If even 15 percent of that capacity can be leased at cloud-provider margin profiles—typically 60 to 70 percent gross margin—Meta creates a new $4 billion to $6 billion annual revenue line without touching its advertising business. The move also undermines Amazon's strategic calculus. AWS generated $27.5 billion in operating income in 2024, with AI workloads representing approximately 22 percent of new commitments. Anthropic is AWS's second-largest AI customer after internal Amazon divisions. Losing that anchor tenant, even partially, would compress AWS growth forecasts by 200 to 300 basis points for fiscal 2026.
The deal structure remains unsettled. Meta could offer pure infrastructure-as-a-service, where Anthropic provisions bare-metal GPU clusters and manages orchestration internally. Alternatively, Meta could provide a managed platform similar to Azure OpenAI Service, handling model deployment, scaling, and compliance while Anthropic retains model weights and training protocols. The latter would require Meta to staff a new enterprise AI division, likely 150 to 200 headcount including solutions architects and customer success engineers. Neither company has commented on negotiation timelines, but industry participants expect a term sheet by late May if discussions advance. Anthropic's current AWS contract expires in tranches between June and October 2025, creating a natural decision point.
Watch whether Meta announces organizational changes in its Reality Labs or Infrastructure divisions within the next 60 days. If the company appoints a VP-level executive to oversee cloud services or creates a new business unit reporting directly to CFO Susan Li, that signals deal momentum. Also watch Anthropic's next funding round, expected in Q3 2025. If the startup raises at a valuation below $45 billion—its last round's implied post-money—it suggests investor concern about margin compression from moving workloads off hyperscaler credits onto paid leases. Finally, monitor Nvidia's data center revenue guidance for Q2 earnings in late May. If the company revises upward by more than $800 million, it likely reflects accelerated shipments to Meta for this capacity expansion.
The cleanest signal is the one already visible: Meta ordered an additional 12,000 H100 GPUs in March, with delivery scheduled for June through August. That volume exceeds internal Llama 4 training requirements by roughly 30 percent.
The takeaway
Meta converting $65 billion AI buildout into cloud revenue stream; Anthropic's $10 billion lease would pressure AWS AI customer concentration.
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