SpaceX stock closed just above $135 this week, slipping beneath its initial public offering price for the first time since the February debut that raised $86 billion and briefly pushed the company's market capitalization past $1.4 trillion. The $1 trillion decline from peak to trough marks the fastest such reversal for any newly public company with a valuation above $500 billion at IPO.

The offering priced at $135 per share and initially surged to $187 within the first three trading sessions, lifting the combined space-and-AI entity to a market value larger than Apple at its post-IPO high. Short interest in the name has risen from 2.1% of the float at the end of February to 11.8% as of the most recent exchange filings, with at least four macro funds publicly disclosing bearish positions in the past ten days. Premarket trading Thursday showed shares flat near $135.20, with volume running 30% below the twenty-day average.

The repricing reflects two distinct concerns among allocators. First, the AI hardware segment—responsible for roughly 60% of projected 2025 revenue—faces margin compression as hyperscaler clients negotiate volume discounts and NVIDIA begins volume shipments of competing Blackwell architecture chips. Second, the Starship production ramp now appears six to nine months behind the schedule Musk outlined during the IPO roadshow, with only four orbital test flights completed versus the twelve he projected by mid-year. The company has not updated its guidance for the 144-satellite Gen3 Starlink constellation deployment, which underwrites the $87 billion in contracted backlog disclosed in the S-1.

Family offices that anchored the IPO at $14 billion to $22 billion ticket sizes are now underwater on a mark-to-market basis if they have not trimmed. At least three Asia-based allocators exited full positions in the past two weeks according to 13F amendments, while two US endowments with $90 million and $140 million stakes filed for extensions on their public disclosure requirements. The repricing also pressures the $12 billion margin facility Goldman Sachs syndicated against SpaceX shares for early employees and option holders, with loan-to-value covenants reportedly set at 50% against a ten-day trailing average.

Operators should track three events in the next sixty days. The Q1 earnings call, scheduled for late April, will clarify whether Starship delays force a revenue recognition shift from 2025 into 2026, materially affecting the $290 billion in full-year sales the street currently models. Second, the May 15 lockup expiration releases 1.8 billion shares held by pre-IPO investors and employees, roughly 40% of the current float. Third, NVIDIA's Blackwell ramp—first customer shipments are slated for mid-May—will define pricing power for SpaceX's AI compute leasing business, which the S-1 projected at 43% gross margins.

The next Starship test flight is currently scheduled for no earlier than April 28, pending FAA environmental clearance for the Boca Chica launchpad modifications.