SpaceX equity closed above $135 per share for the first time since early April, three weeks after a mandatory share unlock triggered the steepest drawdown since the company's March public offering. The move represents a 7.2% rebound from the April 18 intraday low of $125.80, when China's announcement of a Long March 10-class reusable booster spooked momentum buyers who had priced SpaceX as a satellite monopoly rather than a launch-services provider.
The unlock released approximately 41 million shares—roughly 11% of the 380-million-share float—held by early employees and secondary buyers who had participated in pre-IPO tender offers at prices between $97 and $112. Trading volume spiked to 22 million shares daily during the selloff week, then compressed to 8 million by Friday, suggesting the overhang cleared faster than comparable tech IPOs with similar lockup structures. The stock spent eleven trading days below the IPO price, a shorter distress window than Rivian's 43 days or Coinbase's 29 days following their respective unlocks.
The stabilization matters because SpaceX is preparing its first earnings disclosure as a public company, due May 12. Analysts expect revenue of $9.1 billion for the trailing twelve months ending March 2025, with $6.3 billion from Starlink subscriptions and $2.8 billion from launch contracts. The company has disclosed 4.2 million active Starlink terminals globally, implying average revenue per user near $125 monthly—a figure that institutional allocators will scrutinize for churn and margin sustainability. Family offices that bought the IPO are now watching whether SpaceX's satellite-internet economics justify a $185-billion fully diluted valuation, or whether the business trades closer to terrestrial ISPs like Comcast at 8x forward EBITDA rather than software multiples.
The Chinese rocket development, while technically significant, does not materially erode SpaceX's two core moats: a 340-satellite-per-month Starlink launch cadence that no competitor can match, and exclusive NASA contracts for Artemis lunar landers worth $4.2 billion through 2028. What the announcement did accomplish was flush out retail buyers who had entered SpaceX as a space-tourism thematic without modeling propellant costs, reusability economics, or the fact that Falcon 9 already launches at $2,600 per kilogram to low-Earth orbit—half the cost of China's current expendable fleet. The sellers are gone. The remaining float is held by allocators who understand that Starlink's terminal manufacturing cost dropped from $2,400 in 2021 to under $600 in 2024, and that every incremental subscriber above 5 million units flows through at approximately 70% gross margin.
Allocators should monitor two near-term catalysts: the May 12 earnings call, where management will disclose Starlink ARPU trends and launch-manifest backlog, and the June 15 expiration of the second lockup tranche, which releases another 28 million shares held by venture funds who participated in the 2021 Series N round at $56 per share. If the stock holds above $135 through that event, the technical setup improves significantly—short interest sits at 6.8% of float, and options positioning shows institutional buyers have sold the $140 call and bought the $150 call, a spread that pays if SpaceX trades quietly higher into summer.
The earnings report will also reveal whether SpaceX's government-launch revenue—largely from Space Force GPS and reconnaissance satellites—grew sequentially or stalled as Department of Defense appropriations shifted toward hypersonic programs. That mix matters for valuation: commercial Starlink revenue compounds at software rates, while government contracts carry lower multiples and depend on budget cycles outside management's control.