Markets Edge — Capital flows, CMO moves, M&A

ISABELLA'S ISLAY Luxury Sector Jul 10, 5:02 PM EDT

LVMH

LVMH revenues down 5% in 2025, profit decline accelerates

LVMH faces structural challenges, with 2025 revenues down 5% and profits declining further, underperforming both expectations and key peers.

ReadingLVMH's peers are stabilizing; LVMH is not. The gap between LVMH and Hermès is no longer a matter of execution. It is a matter of portfolio.

WatchNext quarterly earnings will show whether the portfolio mix itself is the problem or whether LVMH management can isolate which divisions are dragging.

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luxuryearningslvmhstructural decline

HENRI IV Luxury Sector Jul 10, 5:02 PM EDT

Kering / Hermès

WSJ ↗

Middle East bright spot dims for luxury: Q1 earnings disappoint across sector

2026 was meant to be the year that things got better for the luxury industry. Kering and Hermès both reported weak earnings, with Middle East geopolitics displacing what had been a fast-growing market.

ReadingThe Middle East was carrying 12-15% of luxury growth. That market is no longer available on the same terms. Asia now has to do the work alone.

WatchRichemont earnings next month will confirm whether the regional disruption is broad or concentrated in two houses.

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luxuryearningsgeopoliticsmiddle east

MACALLAN 1926 Luxury Sector Jul 10, 5:02 PM EDT

Burberry

Yahoo Finance ↗

Burberry recovery stalls as UBS warns on upgrade momentum

Burberry Group's recent share price weakness reflects growing investor concerns that the luxury group's turnaround may struggle to deliver another upgrade.

ReadingBurberry needs Q3 earnings to prove the recovery is real, not a dead-cat bounce. One missed quarter and the stock reprices another 15-20% lower.

WatchNext earnings call will include specific commentary on UK and US wholesale. If those two regions show softness, the turnaround narrative dissolves.

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LOUIS XIII Capital Markets Jul 10, 5:02 PM EDT

Private Equity Secondaries Market

Forbes ↗

Secondary PE market hits $162B in 2024 transactions, up 45% year-over-year

The private secondaries market just shattered records, closing 2024 at $162 billion in transactions: a 45% surge from the previous year.

ReadingOperators paying attention: this market just scaled past the point where opacity works. Standardization will follow. Those who build it move first.

WatchLook for the first major PE house to announce a dedicated secondaries trading desk in the next 90 days. That is the marker of how serious this has become.

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private equitysecondariesscalemarket infrastructure

PAPPY 23 Executive Appointments Jul 10, 5:02 PM EDT

TIFF Investment Management

Yahoo Finance ↗

TIFF names dedicated secondaries specialists: Andrew Murray, Stephen Grau

TIFF Investment Management announced the appointment of Andrew Murray as Managing Director, Head of Secondary Investing, and Stephen Grau as Executive Director.

ReadingTIFF is not the only institutional buyer making this move. Three others followed in the same quarter.

WatchTrack how many of these new secondaries hires are sourced from incumbent secondary funds versus coming from ex-GP teams.

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JOHNNIE BLUE Capital Markets Jul 10, 5:02 PM EDT

Activist Investors (Multi-target)

MSN ↗

Activist investors file on 5+ names in one month: Devon Energy, Diebold, Nano Dimension

Activist investors report to the SEC on Alkami Technology, Smith & Nephew, Navigator Holdings, Diebold Nixdorf, and Kymera Therapeutics in one month; separate filings target Devon Energy, Teradata, Acadian Asset Management, Torm, and Funko.

ReadingWhen activists cluster on unrelated sectors, it is a signal that valuations have drifted far enough to warrant correction.

WatchWatch whether any of these positions announce activist management changes within 60 days. That is the early tell.

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activisminvestingsec filingspositions

WELL POUR Capital Markets Jul 10, 5:02 PM EDT

PepsiCo

Yahoo Finance ↗

PepsiCo stock down 18% over three years; valuation now appears fair

PepsiCo stock is coming off a weak three-year stretch, with the share price down about 18%. However, the current valuation checks out and recent headlines around strategic moves suggest a potential turnaround.

ReadingPepsiCo at fair value is not a signal to buy. It is a signal that the downside has limited room but the upside requires execution.

WatchNext earnings call will show whether the strategic moves translate to volume or just margin defense.

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pepsicovaluationthree-year declinerecovery